Daily Market Perspective
March 10, 2026
Good Morning From Ward
Markets are navigating a fragile calm this morning after Monday’s wild session, which saw futures initially plunge more than 2% before a late-day recovery pulled major averages back into the green. The dominant force right now is oil — and what happens in the Strait of Hormuz. Futures for the three main indexes are hovering near the flatline this morning as a pullback in crude oil limits the immediate stagflation fears that rattled investors at the start of the week. Wednesday’s CPI report and Friday’s PCE data are waiting in the wings, and investors would be wise to keep their eye on both.
The Signal
Trump Says Iran War Is “Very Complete” — Oil Drops 7%
President Trump stated Monday evening that the U.S. is “achieving major strides toward completing our military objective,” and reiterated that keeping energy and oil flowing to the world remains a priority. West Texas Intermediate futures fell roughly 6% to near $88 a barrel Tuesday morning, and Brent crude shed about 7% to roughly $91.
Ward’s Take
This is a classic example of a headline that changes by the hour. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has pushed back on Trump’s characterization, threatening to halt exports through the Strait of Hormuz if pressure continues — which tells you that the situation isn’t resolved, it’s just less panicked than it was yesterday. Investors who made dramatic moves at Monday’s open likely regret it. Markets have a way of punishing both fear and complacency in rapid succession.
Morning Headlines
1. CPI Data Due Tomorrow — Inflation Still the Central Question
The February Consumer Price Index is due for release tomorrow, March 11, and high volatility is expected as markets look for clarity on the inflation picture. The reading comes at a delicate moment, with energy prices swinging sharply and services inflation still stubborn.
Ward’s Take: Investors should remember that a single data point rarely tells the whole story. The Fed is watching the same numbers you are. One warm CPI print doesn’t mean rates are going up; one cool print doesn’t mean cuts are coming next month. The bond market will react — but that reaction often overshoots in both directions. The initial reactions are based more on what expectations were, than by what the data are.
2. Oracle Reports Earnings After the Bell Today
Oracle reports its third-quarter fiscal year 2026 earnings after the close today. The cloud giant has announced plans to raise up to $50 billion to expand its AI and cloud infrastructure, but shares are down roughly 22% year-to-date amid concerns over the cost of that investment.
Ward’s Take: Oracle’s previous quarter showed capital expenditures jumping to $12 billion — far above the roughly $4 billion spent the year before — even as the company delivered strong profitability. The market wants to know if the AI spending boom is sustainable (I certainly do) or simply a very expensive bet. Tonight’s call will matter for the broader tech sector, not just Oracle shareholders.
3. Gold Holds Near $5,180 as Safe-Haven Demand Persists
Gold is trading at approximately $5,181 per ounce as of this morning, continuing to consolidate near multi-week highs as geopolitical uncertainty and safe-haven demand remain elevated.
Ward’s Take: Gold has become a measuring stick for global anxiety. Spot gold has gained roughly 77% over the past year, which is a remarkable run by any historical standard. History suggests that assets running this hot tend to cool eventually. That doesn’t mean selling is the right move — but chasing any asset up 77% in a year requires discipline and a clear-eyed understanding of why you own it. Remember, gold doesn’t fit the definition of a classic investment, gold is a pure speculation (buying simply to sell higher with no intrinsic return) that is driven only by supply and demand, and therefore, emotion.
4. TSMC Reports 30% Sales Jump — Chip Demand Stays Strong
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing reported a 30% jump in sales for the first two months of 2026, supporting chip producers more broadly and helping Nasdaq futures recover from their Monday lows.
Ward’s Take: TSMC is as good a real-time indicator of global technology demand as you’ll find anywhere. A 30% sales gain is not a number that suggests AI spending is slowing. For investors in semiconductor-related equities, this is a meaningful data point — though it should be weighed alongside the broader capital expenditure questions being raised across the sector.
5. Asian Markets Whipsawed by Oil Volatility
Asian markets took the brunt of Monday’s oil shock. South Korea’s KOSPI fell nearly 8% before a circuit breaker halted trading, Japan’s Nikkei sank more than 6%, and Taiwan’s index declined nearly 5%. China’s composite was the relative outperformer, down less than 1%. Tuesday brought some recovery across the region.
Ward’s Take: Asia imports the overwhelming majority of oil that transits the Strait of Hormuz, so the region’s reaction was logical. But the speed of the selloff — and the speed of Tuesday’s rebound — is a reminder of how quickly sentiment can shift. Markets tend to find a level that reflects reality more accurately than panic does. The U.S. markets greatly benefit from the U.S. being the largest oil producer in the world, and therefore the marginal producer.
6. European Stocks Post Strongest Session Since April
Europe’s Stoxx 600 posted its biggest single-day gain since April as Brent crude retreated below $91 and Trump’s comments offered some reassurance about the conflict’s trajectory.
Ward’s Take: European equities have been caught in the crossfire of an American geopolitical event, which is familiar territory. The rebound is encouraging, but European markets remain exposed to energy price volatility in a way that the U.S. market is not. Investors with European exposure should think about their energy cost sensitivity.
7. 10-Year Treasury Yield Near 4.2% Ahead of Key Data
The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering near 4.2% as traders await Wednesday’s CPI print and Friday’s PCE reading for clearer guidance on the Fed’s next move. Rate cut expectations for later this year remain elevated, though services sector inflation continues to complicate the picture.
Ward’s Take: The bond market is doing exactly what it should — waiting. Rates at 4.2% reflect genuine uncertainty, not complacency. Investors who locked in longer-duration bonds a year ago have done well. Those waiting for rates to fall further before acting are making a forecast, whether they realize it or not. The bond market is always “waiting”. There is never certainty of what the economy will do, only data on what it has already done.
8. Mortgage Refinancing Surges to Strongest Pace Since 2022
Mortgage applications increased last week, with refinance activity reaching its strongest pace since 2022 and conventional refinances up 20%. Purchase applications are also tracking roughly 10% higher than a year ago.
Ward’s Take: The housing market is quietly sending an optimistic signal. Refinancing activity at these levels suggests that homeowners believe rates have peaked — or at least that current levels are worth acting on. It’s not a dramatic headline, but housing tends to be a leading indicator of broader consumer confidence. Worth watching, as is the percentage of residential contracts that are being abandoned. Buyers walking away from their earnest deposits due to fear are at an all-time high in many formerly “hot” markets.
Ward Wisdom
Geopolitical crises create urgency. They rarely create opportunity for investors who react to headlines. The ones who came out ahead in past energy shocks weren’t the ones who traded fastest — they were the ones who stayed focused on what they actually owned and why they owned it. Worth repeating.
The Ward on the Street is a daily perspective for thoughtful individual investors. Nothing here is investment advice. Do your own homework — and be patient.